Groundhog Day 2024: Is the groundhog going to see its shadow, and how accurate is Phil’s prediction?

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Written By Vikas Jangid

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When is Groundhog Day 2024?

Groundhog Day falls on Friday, February 2, 2024.

While not a national holiday, Americans still eagerly watch to see whether Phil or their local groundhog celebrity spots its shadow on this annual date.

If a shadow is seen, it signifies a prediction of six additional weeks of winter. On the other hand, if no shadow is spotted, it suggests an early arrival of spring.

Groundhog Day 2024
Source: News 10 ABC

What is Groundhog Day?

In the American Groundhog Day tradition, the country's most famous groundhog plays a role in predicting the upcoming season.

The main event unfolds in Pennsylvania, particularly in Punxsutawney. Each year, Gobbler's Knob becomes a bustling hub for people curious about the potential duration of winter.

The festivities are open to the public, with spectators allowed on the grounds from 3 a.m. ET. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club hosts various activities such as talent shows, banquets, and performances in the lead-up to and following the seasonal prediction.

When was Groundhog Day first celebrated?

The initial Groundhog Day festivities took place on February 2, 1887, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, as per

This custom originates from the ancient Christian observance of Candlemas, during which clergy would bless and hand out candles necessary for the winter. The length and chilliness of the winter were symbolized by these candles.

The Germans contributed to this tradition by choosing an animal to assist in weather prediction. However, instead of the current groundhog, they initially used hedgehogs.

When German settlers arrived in America, particularly in Pennsylvania, they upheld the tradition but switched from hedgehogs to groundhogs, which were abundant in the state.

Groundhog Day History

An old German legend suggests that if a groundhog sees its shadow on February 2, winter will last six more weeks; if not, an early spring is on the way.

The tradition originally began as badger day in European folklore but switched to groundhogs when German immigrants in Pennsylvania couldn't find badgers.

Despite its roots, Punxsutawney Phil's weather "forecast" is decided before he "sees" his shadow on Groundhog Day, with records showing over 100 calls for an extended winter since 1887 and just over a dozen predictions for an early spring.

Despite the folklore, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) notes that Phil's shadow sightings don't consistently align with actual February and March weather. Phil's shadow is only a reliable prediction about 40 percent of the time.

Source: Movieclips

Even in Syracuse and CNY, Punxsutawney Phil's predictions haven't proven accurate from 2004 to 2013. Whether it was the warmest periods calling for a late spring or the coldest stretch in 2007 promising an early spring, there was no correlation between Phil's predictions and the actual weather.

Yet, this quirky tradition persists, fueled in part by the 1993 movie "Groundhog Day," where Bill Murray portrayed grumpy weatherman Phil Connors reliving February 2 repeatedly in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.

Murray revisited his groundhog experience in a 2020 Super Bowl commercial, and his co-star Stephen Tobolowsky, known for playing insurance salesman Ned Ryerson, is set to feature in eight distinct Groundhog Day-themed advertisements this Friday.

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